Record High Inventory and Price Pressure : June 16, 2025 Analysis

As of June 16, 2025, the Austin-area MLS reports 17,750 active residential listings, a new record high that surpasses the previous peak of 17,631 set just three days earlier. To put this in perspective, the market had only 2,031 active listings on April 6, 2022. This represents a staggering 774% increase in just over three years. Even compared to April 16, 2025, when there were 15,092 listings, inventory is up by nearly 18% in just two months. This flood of listings continues to outpace demand. Over half (54.3%) of active listings have undergone at least one price drop, reflecting persistent price resistance among buyers. In several suburbs like Lago Vista and Liberty Hill, that number exceeds 60%. In Liberty Hill specifically, 8.2% of listings even increased their prices, perhaps suggesting bifurcation in buyer interest between newer inventory and stagnant properties.

Weak Buyer Demand and Absorption : Despite this historic surge in inventory, buyer activity has continued to weaken. The Activity Index—a measure of buyer engagement based on pending listings relative to total inventory—is down to 20.8%, a 14.8% drop from 24.5% a year ago. This is one of the lowest rates in recent memory and well below the levels seen during the market's mid-pandemic peak, when buyer activity routinely exceeded 30% and even approached 40% in some months. The New Listing to Pending Ratio is perhaps the most telling statistic in terms of market absorption. At 0.53 for the month of June 2025 and 0.66 year-to-date, this means that for every 100 new listings coming to market, only about 53 to 66 are going under contract. The 25-year historical average for this metric is 0.81. We haven’t seen ratios this low since the early 2000s—during a time of significant cooling prior to the housing boom of 2004–2006.

Supply-Demand Gap Continues to Widen : From January to June 2025, there have been 27,436 new listings—22.2% above the historical average. However, pending sales during the same period totaled just 20,740, a year-over-year decline of 14.4%. That gap of 6,696 units is the largest since 2004, when a similar oversupply led to a multi-year pricing stagnation. This gap signals not only a decoupling of supply and demand but underscores that the current market downturn is supply-led—driven by a rush to list rather than a sharp drop in buyer qualification or affordability.

Months of Inventory Signals a Buyer’s Market : The Months of Inventory (MOI) currently stands at 6.32, up from 5.29 a year ago—an increase of 19.5%. Team Price Real Estate classifies a buyer’s market as one with over 7 months of inventory, a neutral market between 5 and 6.9 months, and a seller’s market below 5 months. At 6.32 months, Austin is on the cusp of full buyer territory and already experiencing buyer-like dynamics: heavy concessions, price drops, and slower absorption. Notably, several submarkets are already well into buyer market territory. Marble Falls, for example, has an MOI of 11.0, as do Spicewood and Dale. Even Austin proper now sits at 6.01 months, confirming the citywide slowdown.

Sales Volume and Density Down Sharply : While total units sold year-to-date (14,825) are 7.3% above the 25-year average, they are still down 7.2% compared to the same period in 2024. More concerning is the sharp drop in sales density—only 582 homes sold per 100,000 people (down 20.7% from the average) and 798 homes sold per 1,000 REALTORS (down 24.8%). These declines highlight how rising inventory isn’t being met with proportional buyer activity. With more agents and fewer deals, competition among sellers—and agents—is fierce.

Price Trends Confirm Long-Term Correction : Austin’s market correction, which began in mid-2022, is now fully entrenched. The average sold price has fallen from a May 2022 peak of $681,939 to $609,410 in June 2025, a decline of 10.64%. The median price, a more stable measure that avoids being skewed by luxury properties, is down from $550,000 to $465,000 over the same period—a sharper drop of 15.45%. When compared to prices from three years prior, the median is down 13.08%, reaffirming this as a multi-year downturn. These figures are especially striking when viewed in the context of Austin’s long-term appreciation rate, which averages 5.118% annually. Using that rate, Team Price projects that if today’s $465,000 median price marks the bottom, Austin wouldn’t recover its 2022 peak until December 2028—a full 3.5 years away.

Market Health Index and Inventory Stress Index Confirm Buyer Advantage : Two key proprietary metrics from Team Price Real Estate further reinforce buyer dominance. The Market Health Index (MHI) is at 20.0%—well below the 30% threshold typically associated with a seller’s market. Meanwhile, the Inventory Stress Index (ISI) is at 7.0%, and values below 10% strongly favor buyers. These indices synthesize factors such as inventory accumulation, pending contract velocity, and price adjustments across different price segments.

Segmented Performance by Price Tier and City : A breakdown by percentile shows that the bottom 25% of listings (by price) saw a 3.2% decline year over year, while the top 25% declined by only 0.8%. This indicates that the market correction is disproportionately impacting more affordable housing—typically the domain of first-time buyers and entry-level investors. This segment is also most sensitive to mortgage rates and affordability constraints. At the city level, 18 cities in the Austin area saw year-over-year median price gains, while 11 posted losses. This scattered recovery map shows that local conditions vary widely—some micro-markets may be rebounding due to unique job growth, infrastructure projects, or a temporary influx of cash buyers, but these are exceptions to the regional trend.

Outlook: Extended Correction, Not a Crash : The data continues to support the idea of an extended, multi-year correction rather than a sudden crash. Inventory growth is steady, not explosive. Price reductions are broad but not free-falling. And while activity is down, it is not zero—buyers are still transacting, but only when value aligns with their expectations. The market remains out of balance, and until pending listings rise closer to match new listings—or inventory begins to shrink—the pressure on sellers will persist. In the absence of material changes in mortgage rates, job growth, or consumer sentiment, Austin’s housing market is likely to remain soft well into 2026.

Conclusion : June 2025 marks another pivotal month in the ongoing rebalancing of Austin’s real estate market. Inventory has reached record levels, price drops are widespread, and the absorption rate remains weak. The data clearly show that Austin is transitioning through the latter stages of a housing correction. For buyers, this is a rare window of leverage. For sellers, it is a market that demands realism, precision pricing, and compelling value propositions. For analysts and agents alike, the data from Team Price Real Estate makes one thing clear: we are in a buyer-driven cycle that is unlikely to reverse quickly. Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for June 16, 2025, with today's data.